Deficient monsoon, weak September rainfall pose risks to rabi crops: Crisil
Renewed weakening of rainfall in August and expectations of a deficient September could pose risks to India’s upcoming rabi season, Crisil said. It flagged cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut and soybean as particularly vulnerable. Rainfall deficiency has widened to 14%, while September rainfall is forecast below normal.
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Context
A report by has highlighted that a deficient southwest monsoon and a projected weak September rainfall pose significant risks to upcoming and current . The rainfall deficit, currently at 14%, threatens crops like cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut, and soybean, particularly those lacking sufficient irrigation support, shifting the concern from the area sown to the actual crop yield.
UPSC Perspectives
Geographical
The Southwest Monsoon, vital for Indian agriculture, is experiencing a deficit, significantly impacting the agricultural calendar. The predicts below-normal rainfall for September, a crucial period for the maturation of and the preparation of soil moisture for the subsequent . The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is uneven, which is characteristic of the Indian monsoon, but the overall deficit is a cause for concern. The reliance of Indian agriculture on monsoon rains is immense, with nearly half of the net sown area being rainfed. This makes the agricultural sector highly susceptible to vagaries in rainfall patterns, such as delayed onset, long dry spells, or early withdrawal. A deficient monsoon reduces soil moisture, directly affecting the yield of Kharif crops, especially in regions with limited irrigation infrastructure. Furthermore, inadequate rainfall depletes reservoir levels and groundwater tables, which are critical for the winter-sown Rabi crops, thereby cascading the negative impact into the next cropping season.
Economic
The report underscores the economic vulnerability of specific crops due to the monsoon deficit. Rainfed crops like bajra, tur, and soybean are particularly at risk, highlighting the critical role of irrigation in agricultural stability. While the overall sowing area for Kharif crops has remained relatively stable (lagging by only 1.6%), the critical issue is the potential decline in crop yield. A lower yield directly impacts agricultural production, which can lead to reduced income for farmers, affecting rural demand and overall economic growth. Furthermore, lower agricultural output can trigger food inflation, a significant concern for the broader economy. The government's interventions, such as the and , become crucial in mitigating the financial distress of farmers facing crop losses due to adverse weather conditions. However, the long-term solution lies in enhancing irrigation efficiency, promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, and adopting sustainable agricultural practices to build resilience against climate variability.
Environmental
The increasing frequency and intensity of erratic monsoon patterns are often linked to broader climate change phenomena, such as the and the . The current deficit might be influenced by such climatic anomalies, emphasizing the urgent need for climate-resilient agriculture. The vulnerability of crops highlights the importance of transitioning towards sustainable farming practices, such as , which improve soil health, enhance water retention, and reduce the reliance on chemical inputs. The depletion of water resources due to inadequate rainfall necessitates a focus on water management strategies, including rainwater harvesting, micro-irrigation systems (like drip and sprinkler irrigation promoted under ), and watershed development. Adapting to the changing climate is imperative to ensure food security and the sustainability of Indian agriculture.