Himalayan floods highlight urgent need for regional disaster preparedness: Safi Ahsan Rizvi
Safi Ahsan Rizvi, former advisor, NDMA and a disaster risk analyst speaks to The Hindu
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Context
A recent devastating flood in Nepal, likely triggered by a rock-ice avalanche, has highlighted the critical vulnerability of the Himalayan region to complex, cascading disasters exacerbated by climate change. Experts, including a former adviser to the , are urgently calling for enhanced regional cooperation and real-time data sharing among Himalayan nations to build effective early-warning systems and mitigate the escalating risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and other geohazards.
UPSC Perspectives
Geographical
The Himalayas are an inherently fragile and dynamic mountain system, making them highly susceptible to geohazards like landslides and avalanches. The recent Nepal disaster highlights a complex event where a rock-ice avalanche (a rapid flow of rock, ice, and debris) appears to have acted as the primary trigger, potentially creating a temporary landslide dam that subsequently failed, leading to a massive downstream flood. This differs from a conventional Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), which typically involves the failure of a moraine dam (fragile natural dams formed by glacial debris) holding back a glacial lake. The rapid descent of the avalanche, driven by gravity and steep terrain, significantly amplified the flood's destructive power. The terrain's complexity emphasizes the need for comprehensive hazard mapping that accounts for multiple, cascading risks rather than single-hazard scenarios. The has identified 195 high-risk glacial lakes in India, categorized based on factors like rapid growth, unstable moraine dams, and the potential for overtopping triggered by avalanches from surrounding steep slopes.
Environmental
The escalating frequency and intensity of these disasters are unequivocally linked to climate change. Rising global temperatures are causing accelerated glacier retreat, leading to the formation and rapid expansion of glacial lakes, thereby increasing the baseline risk of GLOFs. Furthermore, climate change is altering precipitation patterns in the Himalayas, resulting in shorter-duration, higher-intensity rainfall events that can trigger flash floods and landslides, acting as a force multiplier for existing geohazards. The changing climate also impacts the broader ecosystem; for example, reduced winter precipitation can leave forests drier and more prone to wildfires, which in turn destabilizes slopes and increases landslide susceptibility. This interconnectedness highlights the necessity of viewing disaster risk reduction through a climate adaptation lens, recognizing that historical data alone is insufficient to predict future risks in a rapidly changing environment. The emphasizes understanding disaster risk in all its dimensions, a principle directly applicable to the complex, climate-driven hazards in the Himalayas.
Governance
Effective disaster management in the Himalayas requires a shift from reactive responses to proactive risk reduction, heavily reliant on robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) and regional cooperation. Implementing EWS in high-altitude, remote areas is technically challenging and requires significant investment in satellite monitoring (like interferometry to detect slope movement) and ground-based sensors. The expert emphasizes that such cooperation must be viewed as a public good rather than a diplomatic favor, given the transboundary nature of Himalayan river systems where a disaster in one country often has catastrophic downstream impacts in another. Current mechanisms for data sharing among Himalayan nations are often inadequate or hindered by geopolitical tensions. To mitigate these risks, structural interventions like siphoning water or creating alternative drainage channels for high-risk lakes are technically feasible but require immense resources and specialized engineering. Addressing these challenges necessitates a multi-stakeholder approach involving governments, scientific institutions, and potentially private sector actors like hydropower companies, guided by frameworks established by bodies like the .